The Switch 2 launched in early June and put up massive sales numbers, but it remains to be seen if the system will be a long-term success, according to Circana analyst Mat Piscatella.
Piscatella told The Game Business that “launch sales of hardware doesn’t often correlate to the lifetime sales.” He said there have been systems that have had “incredible early sales” but later fell off, while other systems started slow and became huge hits later.
“It’s just tough right now to come away with any long-term conclusions or projections, although this is a hell of a good early read,” Piscatella said.
The Switch 2 sold 1.6 million units in the US for its first month, making it the fastest-selling console in US history. The original Switch didn’t reach 1.6 million US sales until four months in. Piscatella predicted that the Switch 2 will sell 4.3 million units in the US for its first year, though he cautioned that the margin for error when it comes to predictions is wider than in previous years due to economic issues in the US.
Regarding the Switch 2’s $450 price point, or $500 for the Mario Kart World bundle, Piscatella said the relatively high cost–it’s about $60 more expensive than the original Switch with inflation factored in–was not an issue for the enthusiast crowd who bought the system at launch.
“But that mass market gift buyer in the holiday window might be a different story,” he said. “The enthusiast audience certainly showed up day one. Now we have to see if they can successful transition to the mass market gift buyer. That’s the next test.”
Just recently, Circana announced that the Switch 2 helped lift hardware spending in the US in June 2025 to $978 million. That’s a new record for any June in history, obliterating the previous record of $608 million spent 17 years ago in June 2008.
Nintendo will release its next earnings report on August 1, at which time the company is expected to disclose new Switch 2 sales numbers and provide more insight. Keep checking back with GameSpot for the latest.
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